Reading Reflection No. 2
Thinking, Fast & Slow, Daniel Kahneman:
1. The general theme of this book is that people are not rational thinkers. There are many psychological and economic concepts and theories that are based on the assumption that humans are rational in their decision making. The efficient market hypothesis is one such theory. However, the foundation of these theories seem to be crumbling as researchers such as Daniel Kahneman reveal that people are actually quite irrational in their behavior and decision making. Kahneman also goes deep into the idea of a 2-system way of thinking, in which our brain has a "System 1" which encompasses the fast, intuitive, emotional, and autonomous thought processes. "System 2", on the other hand, is used when we make slow, deliberate, conscious decisions. The author then describes ways in which these thought processes can lead to biases and heuristics in our way of thinking that lead to irrational behavior.
2. The main part of this book that I believe has enhanced my learning from this class is the description of the biases and heuristics that affect our decisions. These ideas are very important to know as an entrepreneur because people can easily fall victim to these biases and consequently make poor business decisions. Here are a few of the biases discussed in the book and how they could negatively affect an entrepreneur's decision-making ability:
- Confirmation Bias - This occurs when we subconsciously filter the information we receive so that we only focus on the evidence that supports our prior beliefs while we ignore the evidence that opposes our beliefs.
- Sunk Cost Fallacy - This is when someone has already invested into a project, idea, etc., but then it becomes clear that the project, for instance, is not profitable. However, since the person feels they have invested so much emotionally and financially, they will continue with the project even if it has been proven to be unprofitable, leading to more losses.
- WYSIATI - This stands for What You See Is All There Is. This bias is pretty self-explanatory; people tend to neglect possibilities that are outside of their personal experience. For instance, the Black Swan Theory comes from the idea that Europeans back in the day assumed that black swans did not exist anywhere in the world simply because they had not seen them in Europe, but black swans were actually found to live in Australia.
3. My exercise for the class would involve an experiment that would demonstrate the irrationality in our behaviors. I would probably use an experiment that focuses on prospect theory or the sunk cost fallacy. It would most likely involve asking a few simple questions and analyzing the presence or absence of these irrationalities.
4. One concept in the book that really jumped out at me was how people tend to have a much stronger emotional response to losses than to gains. For instance, if someone were to lose $3,000 in an investment, the feeling of loss would be very strong, causing much stress and anxiety. We could say the strength of the emotional response might be an 8/10. On the other hand, if someone were to gain $5,000 on an investment in which they invested the same amount of initial capital, the strength of their emotional response might be a 6/10 or 7/10. This causes the average person to be more risk-averse, especially after they have had negative experiences in the past. When it comes to investing, however, it is not always best to be overly risk-averse, and this can lead to inefficient portfolios, etc. I would like to continue exploring this topic going forward.
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